Friday, February 29, 2008

Done! ... for now (and with a jot of guilt, just as a bonus)


I just sent my book manuscript, provisionally entitled Religious Conflict, International Change, and the Struggle for Power in Early Modern Europe, to Princeton University Press, sans a few "final status" maps.

The blurb I wrote for it (but not the one they'll use):

In 1517 Charles of Habsburg, ruler of the Netherlands and Franche-ComtĂ©, arrived in Castile to claim the thrones of Castile and Aragon-Catalonia. That same year, Martin Luther publicly challenged the Catholic Church and triggered a series of religious upheavals known as the Protestant Reformations. In 1521 Charles, now emperor-elect of the Holy Roman Empire, declared Luther an outlaw and demanded that his German subjects destroy Luther’s works.

For well over the next century, the spread of reformation movements rocked a European order already subject to intense power-political rivalries. Charles, defeated by German Protestants, divided his vast domains between his brother Ferdinand and his son, Philip II of Spain. France next fell into decades of civil war. The Dutch began an Eighty Years War for independence against the Spanish Habsburg Monarchy. Unresolved religious tensions in Germany eventually exploded into the European-wide conflict known as the Thirty Years War.

International-relations scholars have long debated whether these events inaugurated the modern state system. But they have overlooked a more fundamental puzzle: why did the spread of transnational religious movements lead to a profound crisis in the European order? Nexon argues that the key to this question lies in the imperial character of early modern states. He presents a theory of imperial dynamics that explains how transnational religious contention altered the European balance of power. In doing so, he develops a new approach to studying state formation and international change, one with broad implications for the theory and analysis of contemporary world politic
At 127,270 words, thirteen figures, and eleven maps, one of the office administrators and I could barely jam the thing into our largest FedEx box.

Note to self: write next book for non-masochist audience.

Anyway, I'd like to say that this event means that I'll resume serious blogging, but sadly, it merely frees me to finish and/or begin work on five other projects. As these pieces range in due date from "five months ago" to "April," I expect no major increase in substantive blogging on my part. I also expect that my completion--or non-completion--of these projects will occur not long before I receive the manuscript back to review copy edits.

But it feels churlish to complain about anything after reading Elizabeth Rubin's remarkable article in The New York Times, "Battle Company is Out There." It is always important to remember that the United States currently prosecutes not one, but two wars.

The article involves so many valences I cannot begin to describe them: the effect of the air campaign, the dilemmas of occupations and counter-insurgency, the similarities with the experience of empires--both in the core and the periphery--and so forth.

And it wrenches the heart, on behalf troops, Afghans caught in the crossfire, and for all the mistakes the United States has made over the last few years.

Just read it, if you haven't already.

image source: http://blogs.princeton.edu/graphicarts/2007/09/hogenbergs_16thcentury_war_eng.html

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Thursday, February 28, 2008

Sage advice from the Prez

George W. Bush had this exchange at his press conference, February 28, 2008:

Q Mr. President, Turkey's ground offensive in northern Iraq is now a week old with no end in sight. How quickly would you like to see Turkey end its offenses, its incursion? And do you have any concerns about the possibility of protracted presence in northern Iraq causing further destabilization in the region?

THE PRESIDENT: ...I strongly agree with the sentiments of Secretary Gates, who said that the incursion must be limited, and must be temporary in nature. In other words, it shouldn't be long-lasting. But the Turks need to move quickly, achieve their objective, and get out.

Q But how quickly, sir, do they need to move out?

THE PRESIDENT: You know, as quickly as possible.

Q Days or weeks?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, as possible.
Here's John McCain on the US attack on Iraq, back in 2003:
"It will require a commitment to do what is necessary militarily, to deploy as many American forces for as long as it takes, to ignore the political calendar and to trust Iraqis with a greater degree of authority to manage their own affairs," McCain said.
How long might it take? By 2008, McCain said that the US could spend "maybe 100" years in Iraq.

Of course, President Bush eventually expressed the same sentiment as McCain about Iraq: "as long as it takes."

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Kitty Hawk to India?

From Rob at LGM, via Kevin, via Winds of Change:

The latest ROUMINT suggests that Secretary of Defense Gates, now visiting India, might give them the USS Kitty Hawk, CVN-63. The carrier is scheduled to be decommissioned soon, so rather than steaming back to the US, it could steam to India. Potential benefits to the US might include: parts and maintenance contracts, sales of planes to India from Boeing or Lockheed (F-18 and/or F-16), a strategic ally with a Blue Water navy in the Indian Ocean to help fight pirates and such.

The coolest thing came from one of Kevin's comments:

The Kittyhawk spent most of the last few decades based out of there [Yokosuka] working with the JMSDF (you can see her in Google Earth at 35°17'28.13"N 139°39'47.29"E. Look 1200m S-E at 35°17'6.33"N 139°40'27.91"E and you'll see the pre-WWI Japanese battleship Mikasa which is a museum piece. Compare the sizes of two first-rate warships of their time...)
I looked, its there, its kinda cool.

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Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Svalbard: countdown to doomsday

The seed vault opens. World dignitaries, oblivious to the danger, hailed the Doomsday Vault:

"This is a frozen Garden of Eden," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said, standing in one of the frosty vaults against a backdrop of large discs made of ice.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg called the vault an "insurance policy" and added his own biblical comparison: "It is the Noah's Ark for securing biological diversity for future generations."

Svalbard Global Seed Vault, just 620 miles from the North Pole, is designed to house as many as 4.5 million crop seeds from all over the world. It is built to withstand global warming, earthquakes and even nuclear strikes.

The vault, built by the Norwegian government for $9.1 million, will operate like a bank box. Norway owns the bank, but the countries depositing seeds own them and can used them as needed free of charge.
That's what they want you to think.

And yet another reason to fear Svalbard:



Once cloned and engineered, "The Monster" will present a grave threat to US air and naval supremacy, as seen in this artist's rendition:






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Friday, February 22, 2008

Think Harder, Professor Ratner

Steven Ratner has written a "Think Again" piece on the Geneva Conventions in the new issue of Foreign Policy. (This explains why FP rejected my proposal for a Think Again piece on the same topic about three months ago.)

Ratner's list of assumptions that should be rethought include:

"The Geneva Conventions are Obsolete"
"The Geneva Conventions Don't Apply to Al-Qaeda"
"The Geneva Conventions Turn Soldiers Into War Criminals"
"The Geneva Conventions Prevent the Interrogations of Terrorists"
"The Geneva Conventions Ban Asassinations"
"The Geneva Conventions Require Closing Guantanamo"
"No Nation Flouts the Geneva Conventions More than the US"

A couple of other questionable assumptions mentioned in my original proposal might be added to Ratner’s list:

1) "The Geneva Conventions reflect international consensus on how to weigh humanitarian concerns against national security interests." Not really. International consensus is now far more progressive than the original treaties. Part of why the Bush Administration gets away with so much is that a huge gap exists between current norms and the outdated letter of the law.

2) "The Geneva Conventions represent timeless principles." No. Treaties are historical constructs that can be and are often amended as needed. Serious gaps in the law are widely acknowledged: the lack of accountability for private security forces and non-state belligerents, the ambiguity about detainee status determinations, among others. My view: these should be addressed through the negotiation of a new Additional Protocol.

Ratner also reifies some rather unsubstantiated assumptions himself. Let me focus on one: the argument that the US should comply with Geneva because if we don’t we undermine the conventions themselves:
“It is enormously important that the US reaffirms its commitment to the conventions, for the sake of the country’s reputation and that of the conventions… in losing sight of the crucial protections of the conventions, the US invites a world of war in which laws disappear.”

I’ve heard this a few times before, but I’m not sure I buy it. The argument is that US noncompliance with Geneva will affect the rest of the international community’s shared understanding of the rules and norms.

But isn’t it possible that US exceptionalism stands an equal chance of galvanizing pro-Geneva sentiment instead? Certainly this was the case with the International Criminal Court. The US opposes the Rome Treaty and has used several mechanisms including domestic legislation and bilateral treaties to make attempt to undermine the court. Yet in some ways this has only seemed to strengthen the rest of the world’s commitment to the ICC, and it’s the legitimacy of the US in matters of humanitarian affairs that has been undermined. Similarly, 80+ countries are moving ahead with a ban on cluster munitions, shrugging their shoulders at the US which isn’t interested.

I think that arguments that US behavior risks undermining regime norms, which are principled rules shared by the entire international community, reflects a certain arrogance. We never assumed that Milosevic’s use of concentration camps “undermined the POW rules,” only that it represented a violation of those rules to be condemned and punished. In fact, the international response reaffirmed the rules, just as international condemnation of US practice is now doing.

Of course you might argue that the US has disproportionate influence on regime norms because of its soft power. But I would suppose it’s US soft power that is being undermined here, not international norms.

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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Where is the Global Attention to Children Born of War?

Went on BBC World for the first time yesterday to talk about protecting children born as a result of sexual violence in conflict zones like Darfur, Bosnia, Rwanda, East Timor, you name the conflict zone where rape has been endemic, you'll find a host of children growing up in the aftermath.

The segment just before my interview focuses on children conceived during the Rwandan genocide.

As I describe in my interview and as the volume of essays I published last year details, these children are often (though not always) treated rather badly in the aftermath of wars, either by their states, local communities or sometimes their traumatized mothers.

The big puzzle for me as a scholar of global agenda-setting in the human rights area is that lack of attention to these children by the international community. 300,000 child soldiers galvanizes the Security Council, but half a million or so children at risk of infanticide, neglect, abuse, social exclusion or statelessness remain invisible.

I wrote about this before and talk about it a bit on the segment. Am continuing to collect thoughts on the matter from anyone who cares to ruminate on a grim and depressing topic. Your comments will help me refine an argument for my new book about how the human rights network exercises an agenda-denying as well as agenda-setting function.

Here's one of my theses: nobody owns an issue like this. Child protection agencies think of stigma against children born of rape as a gender-based violence issue. So they assume that women's groups are covering it. Gender-based violence experts tend to focus on the trauma to the direct victims of rape, not long-term inter-generational effects on their babies. They see the protection of those children as falling to the child protection agencies. So the babies fall through the cracks.

How many other issues or populations are out there that get missed by advocacy organizations because they don't fit the ideational and organizational turf of the NGO sector?

What other factors explain this or other such cases?

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Cuba: El Tiante's pitch

Let me followup Peter's post on Cuba. Legendary and colorful retired pitcher Luis Tiant had this to say about the Cuban embargo:

"I think it's crazy," Tiant said. "Everybody does business with Cuba - Latin America, China, everybody - and what is the difference? We are 90 miles from Cuba. We don't have a relationship with them. That's crazy. It makes no sense to me.

"The people have suffered enough. They've gone through a hard life. Forty-six years I've been out. I hope it changes."
As for Peter's question about the choice between domestic politics and the national interest? While neither of the two remaining Democratic candidates for president have called for lifting the economic embargo, it seems pretty clear that Barack Obama's position is less hawkish.

Indeed, Obama wrote an op-ed about Cuba last summer for a Miami paper suggesting that the US should reduce some restraints on travel and remittances.

Clinton's response was not promising.
Hillary Clinton continued her recent attacks on his perceived foreign policy naivete, insisting that "until it is clear what type of policies might come with a new [Cuban] government, we cannot talk about changes in the U.S. policies toward Cuba."
It's too bad the Democrats didn't have a real primary in Florida this year so that these issues could have been debated more publicly.

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"Kosovo is no better than us...."

The fallout continues:

"If things are not going in the direction of actually halting settlement activities, if things are not going in the direction of continuous and serious negotiations, then we should take the step and announce our independence unilaterally," Mr Abed Rabbo told Reuters.

Palestinian leader Abbas and Israeli PM Olmert in Jerusalem 19 February
Abbas and Olmert met but there is no news of progress

"Kosovo is not better than us. We deserve independence even before Kosovo, and we ask for the backing of the United States and the European Union for our independence," he added.

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Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Domestic Politics vs. the National Interest

If there is one domestic lobby that has captured US policy toward another country, it is the Cuba lobby that pushes for ever stricter sanctions on the Castro regime. The power of this lobby in Presidential politics can’t be overstated—it is a very large, issue specific, and highly organized voting bloc in Miami Dade county in Florida. Win Florida, win the White House, we all know that story well. Thus, we regularly see leading national politicians competing to out-tough the other in order to make inroads into the Cuban vote in south Florida.

Today’s big news, that Fidel would formally step down as Cuba’s head of state, offers an interesting chance to view the power of this domestic political lobby at a moment when the national interest might suggest an alternative different policy.

The Libertad Act, passed by a Republican Congress and signed by President Clinton in the election year of 1996 wrote the US embargo of Cuba into law, significantly strengthening it (Clinton won Florida and won re-election that year). From JFK through 1996, the embargo was a series of Executive orders. The difference: a future president could end the executive orders at any time. Changing the law requires a subsequent act of Congress. A central point of the Libertad act was that the Embargo will remain in force until there is a transitional government in Cuba that does not include Fidel Castro or his brother Raul.

This brings us to today. Fidel stepping aside certainly marks a sea-change in Cuban politics. It does mark a transition in government, but for the time being, Raul Castro remains a part of the picture. This change also presents a unique opportunity for the United States.

Cuba faced tough times after the end of the Cold War. The USSR was a valuable patron, buying its exports and providing funds to subsidize its economy. Without the USSR, Cuba suffered. Recently, though, Hugo Chavez has stepped into that role, using its vast oil profits to funnel money into Cuba.

Here’s the opportunity for the US: take the transition in Cuba, from Fidel to a successor government, to lift the embargo and allow US capital, business, and tourists to pour in (and it would—see the Godfather or Guys and Dolls). Engaging Cuba could steer them away from Chavez and toward the US. The US has identified the rise of Chavez as a national security challenge, and has identified a clear interest in reducing Chavez’s influence in Latin America.

So, here’s the question: Given a clear national security argument for taking this opportunity to engage Cuba, end the embargo, and peel Cuba away from the Chavez camp, does this National Interest trump the domestic politics of pandering to CANF and Cuban voters in Miami in an election year. Do we see the Cuba lobby press for a continued embargo, further driving Raul and the transition government closer to Chavez? What does Bush do, what does Congress do, and what to the Presidential Candidates press for?

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Monday, February 18, 2008

Texas Two-step

Reading between the lines of a front page story in this mornings Washington Post:

Hillary Supporters: Oh My Heavens! We just read the rules for the Texas primary and discovered that even if we win we might not win! Why didn't you tell us this earlier? How unfair is that?!?! Our big Texas strategy could fall apart because of these rules where our voters don't count as much as we need them too. Is there any way we could question the established rules to help our candidate win?

Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended.
The rules of the Texas Primary / Caucus / Delegate selection fracas are beyond complicated and arcane. There's a primary AND a caucus, on the same day. Delegates are distributed on the basis of turnout in the previous two elections by State Senate district. The results of the caucus aren't announced until the state convention in June. The best explanation I've read of it was in the Houston Chronicle, here.

In a nutshell, if Obama wins big in Austin (self-styled 'weird' college town), and large African-American districts in Houston (especially) and Dallas, he can counter-act Hillary's expected sweep of the heavily Latino parts of the state.

I'm guessing that Obama's people read these rules a while ago, and that's why they don't seem so worried about it.

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Sunday, February 17, 2008

Kosovo declares independence

The BBC:

Kosovo's parliament has unanimously endorsed a declaration of independence from Serbia, in an historic session.

The declaration, read by Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, said Kosovo would be a democratic country that respected the rights of all ethnic communities.

The US and a number of EU countries are expected to recognise Kosovo on Monday.

Serbia's PM denounced the US for helping create a "false state". Serbia's ally, Russia, called for an urgent UN Security Council meeting.

Correspondents say the potential for trouble between Kosovo's Serbs and ethnic Albanians is enormous.

Serbia's Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica blamed the US which he said was "ready to violate the international order for its own military interests".

"Today, this policy of force thinks that it has triumphed by establishing a false state," Mr Kostunica said.

"Kosovo is Serbia," Mr Kostunica said, repeating a well-known nationalist Serb saying.
The Washington Post:
Kosovo's parliament declared the disputed territory a nation on Sunday, mounting a historic bid to become an "independent and democratic state" backed by the U.S. and European allies but bitterly contested by Serbia and Russia.

Serbia immediately denounced the declaration as illegal, and Russia also rejected it, demanding an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council.

President Bush said the U.S. would work to prevent violence after the declaration and the European Union appealed for calm, mindful of the risk that the declaration could plunge the turbulent Balkans back into instability.

"Kosovo is a republic _ an independent, democratic and sovereign state," Kosovo's parliament speaker Jakup Krasniqi said as the chamber burst into applause. Across the capital, Pristina, revelers danced in the streets, fired guns into the air and waved red and black Albanian flags in jubilation at the birth of the world's newest country.

Sunday's declaration was carefully orchestrated with the U.S. and key European powers, and Kosovo was counting on swift international recognition that could come as early as Monday, when EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels, Belgium.
Doug Muir thinks independence is the "least bad" outcome. The Serbian Church disagrees, calling for a "state of war." For once, the Georgians agree with the Russians.

And, in fact:
The breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are planning to ask Russia and the UN to recognise their independence following the declaration of independence by Kosovo, Russia's Interfax news agency reported.

"In the near future, Abkhazia will appeal to the Russian parliament and the UN security council with a request to recognise its independence," self-declared Abkhaz president Sergei Bagapsh was quoted as saying by Interfax.

"South Ossetia will in the near future appeal to the Commonwealth of Independent States and the UN with a request to recognise our independence," South Ossetian president Eduard Kokoity was quoted as saying by the news agency, referring to a grouping of ex-Soviet states that includes Russia.

Both leaders said the moves were prompted by Kosovo's decision to declare independence today.
Who will recognize Kosovo?
Diplomats said about 20 EU nations — led by Britain, France, Germany and Italy — are keen to recognize Kosovo's break from Serbia. However, Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Romania are vehemently against it. Slovakia, too, has voiced doubts but could move toward recognizing Kosovo's statehood, diplomats said.
And over what timeframe?

Not very many advocates of national self-determination actually get states.I expect we'll be studying this case, and dealing with its effects, for a while.

Chirol has pictures of the celebrations in Germany.

Sofia Echo has a decent backgrounder.

Thoughts?

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Nerd beat



'Nuff said

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Friday, February 15, 2008

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Apparently so.

The NYT has a book review that treads the familiar ground of why Americans are so dumb when it comes to supposedly vital information about the world. The old X% of Americans support a war in Iraq, but only Y% can actually find Iraq on a map... This is especially upsetting to the classic, old-school curmudgeons who think that a classic education involves knowing a lot of key names, dates, and classical cultural references.

This particular thing, however, does not bother a number of my colleagues (I'll admit I'm a bit more on the fence about it than others...).* The argument goes: such random trivia, like where Iraq is on a map or who was the 13th President of the United States** is readily deposited in great knowledge warehouses such as Google. If you need to know it, just look it up. More important to teach and more important to learn is the skill to look up this bit of information when you need it. Teach the skill and students will always be able to get what they need. In fact, such skills are part of the "skills revolution" that actually makes American kids/workers smarter than other kids/workers around the world.

But such pedagogy seems in the minority. The more troubling trend in American culture is that:

But now, Ms. Jacoby said, something different is happening: anti-intellectualism (the attitude that “too much learning can be a dangerous thing”) and anti-rationalism (“the idea that there is no such things as evidence or fact, just opinion”) have fused in a particularly insidious way.
Now you have talking heads on TV screaming at each other, often seeming to make stuff up to support a point, justified under the guise of "opinion" where every opinion counts (that's your opinion, and you're entitled to it, but I believe otherwise...).

The anti-intellectualism / anti-rationalism combination undermines the knowledge gathering skills that make the need for memorization of random facts less important, thereby removing any and all facts from the evaluation of argument. When facts are widely known and memorized, they constrain a discussion to those sets of facts. Classically educated individuals talk about the classics. They also set truth conditions for claims--conforming to the shared facts.

The skills revolution of what our library folks call information literacy (the ability to locate, recognize, and evaluate relevant information) performs a similar task, albeit on another level. It too sets constraints on argument, though from a more methodological perspective. But, it still sets truth conditions for claims--demonstrated collection of relevant and accurate information from appropriately authoritative sources. To take Global Warming, for example (Gore's movie was on tonight and I watched the last hour of it as I ate dinner....) information literacy skills lead you to the point that scientists accept global warming as a fact, as all peer reviewed scientific papers agree to this. If you know how to search for and evaluate scientific information, this fact is easily obtainable and the position is hard to dispute. But, when you ignore this skill, and adopt the anti-intellectual, anti-rationalist position lamented here, Global Warming becomes an opinion, still open for debate.

All of which is to say, I don't worry so much about the fact that kids don't know X or Y fact. But, I do worry when kids can't tell the difference between analysis based on a logical arrangement of well researched facts and opinion based on personal proclivities with facts selected to fit that view.


*I think that a number of so called facts are actually more conceptual than we give them credit for, and thus, relatively important to know. Knowing where Iraq "is" is not just about a spot on a map, it also is linked to questions of strategy, culture, politics, and the like. Certain other claims, like "Iran is a player in Iraq" are greatly aided if you know that Iran and Iraq share a rather large land border.

**Millard Fillmore--I bet you didn't know either until you googled it.

***Germans? Forget it, he's rolling....

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Thursday, February 14, 2008

Exploiting the unipolar moment, part II

Another major development on the national-security front today: the US plan to shoot down one of its own spy satellites.

President Bush, acting on the advice of his national security advisers, has decided to attempt to shoot down a malfunctioning spy satellite that is expected to crash to Earth early next month, a spokesman for the National Security Council said today.

NSC spokesman Gordon Johndroe said the president made the decision within the past week and asked the military to come up with plans to destroy the satellite.

Johndroe said that decision, which will be explained at a Pentagon news conference this afternoon, was based on the fact that the satellite is carrying substantial amounts of a hazardous and corrosive rocket fuel, hydrazine.

The satellite was launched in December 2006 but soon lost contact with ground control. Information about the spacecraft is classified, but experts believe it is the first of a new generation of smaller and more precise spy satellites.

Johndroe said the satellite would be destroyed "as it comes to Earth," which is expected to occur in several weeks.
The US may also be concerned about sensitive technological components falling to the wrong hands.
Some military experts say the Pentagon may be worried the satellite's top secret spy technology might survive reentry into the atmosphere and end up in the wrong hands. General Cartwright rejected that speculation.

"There is some question about the classified side of this," he said. "That is really not an issue. Once you go through the atmosphere, and the heating and the burning, that would not be an issue in this case. It would not justify using a missile to take it and break it up further."

Taking down the satellite is a sensitive issue because of the controversy sparked when China shot down one of its defunct weather satellites last year, drawing criticism from the United States and other countries. The Pentagon said it has briefed other countries about its plans.
Which is well and good. But remember that this comes almost immediately after Russia and China proposed a treaty banning space-based weapons systems and those designed to attack objects in orbit.

The Bush Administration, which seeks to extend the US "command of the commons" to outer space, opposes the treaty.

I can't help but imagine that the Chinese and the Russians, let alone many other observers, find the timing of this announcement suspicious. After all, what might better demonstrate the importance of anti-satellite weapons than a potential environmental danger from a malfunctioning satellite? And it does give the US an opportunity to flex its muscles.

But even if the timing is completely innocent--and I see no reason to doubt that the decision stems from legitimate concerns--its implications are likely to reverberate in an already deteriorating environment for US-Russian, and possibly Sino-US, relations.

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How is this a good idea?

I'm sure you've all be closely following the story of the 5000-pound, bus-sized top-secret satellite that is tumbling toward earth and set to re-enter the atmosphere in the next several weeks. The satellite, reportedly a top-secret NRO advanced imaging device launched in December 2006, died soon after launch. Its big enough that a sizable chunk is expected to survive the re-entry process. Obviously the most important question of the day is who will the satellite land on when it returns to earth....

Today we learn that the Bush administration has decided to have the military shoot down the satellite. The NYT reports:

Only twice in history has any nation shot an actual satellite down: China did it last year, and the United States more than 20 years ago.
The Bush Administration claims that it only has humanitarian interests and public safety as its chief concerns.
President Bush ordered the action to prevent any possible contamination from that hazardous rocket fuel on board, and not out of any concern that parts of the spacecraft might survive and its secrets be revealed, officials said....

It contains a half-ton of hydrazene, a rocket fuel that officials said can burn the lungs and even is deadly in extended doses....

The fuel tank is believed sturdy enough to survive re-entry, based on studies of the fuel tank that fell to earth after the shuttle Columbia disaster in 2003. Officials said that the slushy frozen fuel would have then been released wherever it came down....

Although White House, military and NASA officials described the president’s decision as motivated solely by wanting to avoid a spread of toxic fuel in an inhabited area, it has implications for missile defense and antisatellite weapons.

“This is all about trying to reduce the danger to human beings,” said James Jeffrey, the deputy national security adviser.
And to keep anyone from somehow recovering any top-secret parts, and, of course, sending not at all subtle signals to China.
The challenging mission to demolish it instead on the fringes of space will rely on an unforeseen use of ship-based weapons developed to defend against ballistic missile attacks. That makes it a real-world test both of the nation’s antiballistic missile systems and its antisatellite capabilities, even though the Pentagon said that they were not using the exercise to test their most exotic weapons or send a message to any adversaries.
Riiiiiight.
In many ways, the task resembles shooting down an intercontinental nuclear missile, although in this case the target is larger, its path is better known, and if a first shot misses, it will continue to circle the earth for long enough to allow a second or even a third try....

Even so, the ramifications of the operation are diplomatic as well as military and scientific, in part because the United States criticized China last year when Beijing used a defunct weather satellite as a target in a test of an antisatellite system.
China shoots down one of its own defunct satellites in high-earth orbit, creating tons of space junk (junk, incidentally, that poses a greater threat to US military satellite capability than the a-sat capability itself), and the US offers massive protests and condemnation. Now, less than a year later, the US seeks to do roughly the same thing, only in a lower orbit, and its OK. The Chinese and Russians vehemently protest the development and deployment of US missile defense systems, and the US will activate and use them in this operation. Exactly what what message is China (and Russia) supposed to get here?
A Congressional Democrat considered one of the party’s experts on missile defense agreed that the United States had to take responsibility for any threat posed by the satellite, but she warned that the nation needed to be open in the effort as it will be a precedent for other countries.

“Just like our partners in space, we need to be responsible for the risks we create,” said Representative Ellen O. Tauscher of California, who is chairwoman of the House strategic forces subcommittee. “This can’t be a demonstration of an offensive capability.”

Jeffrey G. Lewis, an arms control specialist at the New America Foundation, warned that China would cite the intercept to justify the antisatellite test it conduct last year.

“The politics are terrible,” Mr. Lewis said. “It will be used by the Chinese to excuse their hit-to-kill test. And it really strengthens the perceived link between antisatellite systems and missile defenses. We will be using a missile defense system to shoot down a satellite.”


Who thought this was a good idea?

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Exploiting the unipolar moment, part I

The United States has decided to strongly back the Ukrainian and Georgian bids to begin the process of becoming NATO members.

Despite fierce objections from Russia, the United States is pushing NATO to start membership negotiations with Ukraine and Georgia at an alliance summit meeting in Bucharest in April, diplomats said Wednesday.

The U.S. pressure is likely to lead to divisions inside the 26-member alliance, with Germany and several West European countries opposed to offering Ukraine and Georgia the prospect of imminent membership. Washington and several East European countries say the alliance should not give in into threats by the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, who this week warned his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yushchenko, that if Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia might aim nuclear missiles at the country.

Bruce Jackson, president of both the Project on Transitional Democracies and the U.S. Committee on NATO group, said NATO should not be intimidated by Russia. "These countries want to join NATO," he said. "They can do the required reforms. This is about extending the Euro-Atlantic alliance."
I'll have more to say about Ukraine in a subsequent post. For now, let me just say that this strikes me as a bad idea.

1. I don't see a great deal of evidence to suggest NATO ascension locks in desired domestic political institutions and orientations. Most of the evidence for NATO's "success" in this regard comes from Baltic and Eastern European countries--Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, and so forth--that were also, not long afterwards, involved in the European Union ascension process. NATO membership can reform their militaries, but EU ascension brings with it much more intrusive--and effective--restructuring of key domestic institutions.

2. Bringing Ukraine and Georgia in might extend western influence over their security policies, but it also carries great risks. The Russians already amount to a cornered bear. I don't think that NATO should be poking and prodding a cornered bear, particularly when that bear is starting to flex its muscles. Georgia, in this respect, represents a particularly risky candidate. The Georgians are involved in "frozen" territorial disputes with breakaway provinces--such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia--backed by Russia. They'd really like to take them back, they really want de jure independence, and the Russians would love to stop them. Georgian President Saakashvili also seems to feel emboldened by their existing ties with the United States, and a road to NATO membership may make them feel even more willing to push these matters. Not a favorable entanglement, given the lack of any clear strategic rationale for Georgian membership.

3. This is already a bad time for NATO cohesion, in part because of its planned Balkan expansion, but mostly because of frictions over Afghanistan. The alliance is in real danger of becoming irrelevant, and it makes no sense to take steps likely to increase friction before its members reach some consensus on its role in the current order.

I've been working on a longer post involving related issues, so I should have more to say about this later.

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PTL returns

In my world -- currently Acting Department Chair -- PTL stands for "part-time lecturer," not "praise the lord."

I'm looking forward to May 22, when the ultimate part-time lecturer returns -- to the big screen: "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull."

Apparently, the plot concerns...

According to MTV's Shawn Adler:

1:26: The biggest spoiler of the trailer: a shot of a box with the words "Roswell, New Mexico 1947" etched on the side in white paint. Assuming that Lucas has decided to follow the tradition, here, finally, is indisputable evidence as to what the powers of the crystal skulls are. Again deferring to the expert, Dr. Zender posited that one theory on the origin of the crystal skulls was that they were ancient alien "supercomputers," akin to modern-day silicon chips. After "protecting the power of the divine," Indy is now after an even greater weapon — ultimate knowledge.
Gee, what happened in Roswell, New Mexico, in 1947?

Perhaps this will job your memory of history:

I know this isn't a typical topic for IR blogging, but I received an email link to this related piece on "exopolitics" in the buildup to the Iraq war.

I'm a proponent of transparency in politics -- but the Disclosure Project takes that idea and runs with it.

The author was at AU, though I don't know if he's known to PTJ or Peter.

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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

The Glitterati Strikes Again

Steven Spielberg has withdrawn from his role as artistic adviser to the Beijing Olympics to protest China's policy towards Darfur. Seemingly, yet another example of "celebrity activism" around human security issues.

I blogged about this before. As I continue to think about the role of celebrity activism in human security campaigns, I've been pondering who actually counts as a celebrity? Performers clearly do. But what about other well-known members of the entertainment industry - writers, producers? What about well-known figures who perform public, rather than media roles? In a digital world, where do the lines blur between political, cultural and religious "celebrities"? Also, is there an analytical difference between celebrity "activism" and "celebrity activism"?



An example of the former conundrum. The transnational advocacy literature sometimes refers to Princess Diana's role in championing the landmines issue. But was her role more analogous to that of Bono re. debt relief? Or more analogous to Hilary Clinton's championing of attention to sex trafficking? Was Diana a celebrity in the movie-star sense or a political figure in the statesperson sense? What about Al Gore? Is he a former president or a movie star? Few would doubt that his "celebrity" activism has drawn new attention to climate change as an issue. And are religious figures such as the Dalai Lama or Pope genuine "celebrities"? Are you a "celebrity" if you are not routinely featured in the tabloids?

And what do we mean by activism anyway when it comes to celebrities? There is personal activism, where a celebrity uses his or her renown as soft power in their own civic work - as the LiveAid events depicted in the Nickelback video suggest. And then there is the embedding of activism into media outputs produced by celebrities themselves - such as the video "If Everyone Cared" itself or the film "Blood Diamond." Are these activities really comparable? Should they not be disaggregated somehow in order to gauge the relative influence of celebrities in global politics?

Some careful attention to the actual role of celebrities in transnational campaigns - for better or worse - is long overdue by IR scholars. But there are conceptual problems to deal with first. Who can offer a parsimonious definition of "celebrity" or of "celebrity activism" that might guide rigorous research on the subject?

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Monday, February 11, 2008

Vote Donna Edwards in MD-04

The Maryland Presidential Primary is tomorrow, and I still don't know if I'll vote for Clinton or Obama. But if any of our readers vote in MD-04, I want to urge you to vote for Donna Edwards against our incumbent representative, Al Wynn.

Donna Edwards has been a favorite of progressive bloggers since 2006, when she lost to Wynn by about 2700 votes. Now, our readers know that I'm further right than the median progressive blogger. I'm also a bit further to the right than Edwards. But she'd be a major improvement to Wynn, who, besides being far too cozy with corporate interests given the socio-economic character of MD-04, is running a deceptive and nasty campaign in a last-ditch attempt to save his seat.

From the Washington Post endorsement:

For her part, though, Ms. Edwards, a lawyer and foundation executive, has been an effective, energetic advocate for a range of liberal causes -- the environment, higher minimum wages, stemming domestic violence, campaign finance reform. As a community organizer, she has been an unstinting voice for improving mass-transit options, although sometimes at the expense of building roads that the 4th District badly needs. Even in cases where she clashed with local developers, however, she won their respect as a sensible and no-nonsense adversary. Poised, persistent and principled, she would make a fine representative for the 4th District.

Mr. Wynn has long touted what he regards as a pragmatic ability to work across partisan lines. We're all for bipartisanship, but in Mr. Wynn's case, too often his stances have been unthinking and out of step with his district's interests. His vote to scrap the estate tax suggested he was indifferent to his own middle-class constituents. By flip-flopping on fuel-efficiency standards and opposing campaign finance reforms, he showed his contempt for clean air and clean government. And he seems scarcely aware of the import of his votes to permit federal courts to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case and to support a constitutional amendment banning flag-burning: granting federal courts a license to meddle in private affairs and cramping free speech.
Maia and I canvassed for Edwards on Saturday. This was the first time I've volunteered for a political campaign since 1988.

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Strike in the Dark

For the past 5 months, I've been following the strange story of Israel's bombing of a mysterious site in Syria. In this month's New Yorker, Seymour Hersh has an excellent look into the subject. Hersh takes a round-up of the major media stories of the event, analyzing how they advance the narrative of the episode, and adds some first-rate reporting from Israel, Syria, and Washington. While his article sheds new and important light on the subject, at its core, it remains a mystery:

Morton Abramowitz, a former Assistant Secretary of State for intelligence and research, told me that he was astonished by the lack of response. “Anytime you bomb another state, that’s a big deal,” he said. “But where’s the outcry, particularly from the concerned states and the U.N.? Something’s amiss.”

Israel could, of course, have damning evidence that it refuses to disclose. But there are serious and unexamined contradictions in the various published accounts of the September 6th bombing.
Hersh reviews the assertions--some questionable, some reasonable--that it was a nuclear site and leaves the distinct impression that at best, this was highly educated guessing. The Israeli officials he interviewed insisted that "something" was there, but offer no more. Even if one is willing to concede that the target was questionable in its nuclear status, the central mystery remains:
If the Israelis’ target in Syria was not a nuclear site, why didn’t the Syrians respond more forcefully? Syria complained at the United Nations but did little to press the issue. And, if the site wasn’t a partially built reactor, what was it?
After extensive research in Syria and elsewhere, the best he can offer is
Whatever was under construction, with North Korean help, it apparently had little to do with agriculture—or with nuclear reactors—but much to do with Syria’s defense posture, and its military relationship with North Korea. And that, perhaps, was enough to silence the Syrian government after the September 6th bombing.
Hersh raises the parallel of Kumchang-Ri, a North Korean site that the US suspected of housing a nuclear reactor. After considerable controversy, the US pressed the issue and cut a deal to inspect the site. The result? A big, empty hole in the ground. Might it be possible that Israeli intelligence analysts were simply wrong about the Syrian site? Perhaps, but if they were wrong, why didn't Syria say anything? The theme that constantly came up among Israelis was the re-establishment of their deterrent. Following the failures of the IDF against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hezbollah, Syria (and possibly Iran) seemed to think that they had finally achieved an advantage over Israeli military might. This raid did, if anything, point out that Israel can still pack a very powerful punch.
That notion was echoed by the ambassador of an Israeli ally who is posted in Tel Aviv. “The truth is not important,” the ambassador told me. “Israel was able to restore its credibility as a deterrent. That is the whole thing. No one will know what the real story is.”

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Saturday, February 09, 2008